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Other Memorable Mobsters: Real & in the Movies REAL: We seem to know Charles Lucky Luciano (born Salvatore Lucania) smoked cigars, or at least liked to keep some around, because his humidors were acquired and then auctioned off

Applying Bayess rule, we have odds(smoker | cancer) = odds(smoker) * p(cancer | smoker) / p(cancer | non-smoker) Rearranging terms, we can solve for the risk ratio: p(cancer | smoker) / p(cancer | non-smoker) = odds(smoker | cancer) / odds(smoker) = 16 Thats the answer I had in mind, but let me address an objection raised by one poll respondent, who chose Other because, You cant draw casual inferences from observational data without certain assumptions which Im unwilling to make. Thats true

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Temporal precedence of smoking over the prodromal period further strengthens this smoking causes schizophrenia hypothesis